Brussels, we have a problem!
In many different nations and cultures, it is believed that number thirteen represents a negative energy and brings bad luck. Superstitious or not, next year will be symbolized in that number.
On 14th Business Conference Portorož, prof. Joachim Scheide, Head of the Kiel Institute for World Economy and professor at the University of Kiel, participated in a discussion panel with prof. Veljko Bole, an employee at the Economic Institute of the Law School (EIPF) and Senior Research Fellow. Both of the economists have presented some of the key macroeconomic indicators in numbers, forecasted for the next year (2013). The main focus was on upcoming events in the Europe, especially Southern-eastern zone and Slovenia.
„There are extremely big differences inside the countries in the Euro-zone that have been affected by crisis. And the differences are increasing. “
Prof. Scheide: „The recovery after the crisis is modest in USA. But, on the other hand, Europeans need to accept an unanimous decision about the monetary policy, because we are still facing the crisis. For that reason, no short term economic growth is predicted, but for the next year, there is an 3,5% expected growth, on global level.“
„The probability of the brake of the Euro zone is fifty percent. “
„In the Euro area, there is still Germany as the most stabile country, with forecasted continuous economic growth of 1%. But, the future of the European currency may also affect Germany’s macroeconomic predictions. If we do not find the consensus inside EU and the Euro crisis, all forecasted indicators may not be accomplished next year, but the year after 2013. The problem is not only the uncertainty of the predictions itself, but it is also crucial to recognize, if the governments will be able to implement all the reforms needed. Especially delicate are the Greek, Spain, Italian and Portuguese.
„There is crisis. And it will be continued. “
Prof. Bole has analyzed Slovenian market and European Southeastern area. According to his forecasts: „ Export is still the lightest point in Slovenian economy. In this field, we are still reaching European average. Whereas, relative labor costs compared to productivity are 10% behind from average. To make things even worse, there are entrepreneurs, who are facing with inadequate financing and decreasing demand on the market. Furthermore, also government’s consumption is decreasing. But, on the other hand, there are high technology firms that are doing well. They are stable and are not facing any decreasing indicators. In Europe, there are only 30% of the countries that are doing better than Slovenia. “
„The crisis in Slovenia till 2016. Ten years all together. But only with the efficient government.“
Prof. Scheide also added his own analysis for Slovene area: „For year 2013, there is an expected growth rate 1,9 % and till the end of this year, Slovenia will face negative growth of -0,6%.“
Next, 2013 is going to be extremely exhausting and hard year, for Europe and our region. For that reason, it is extremely important for each individual own to find its own way of solving the crisis, such as with its rational behavior, social response management and positive energy, in order to eliminate all the bad luck that might be brought by the number thirteen. We truly believe that our governments have learned something from the experience in the past, as the current situation is really bad – in most aspects. For that reason, more responsible behavior also from the politician’s side is welcome.
Will the dangerous bazooka, with only one shot, be able to rescue the Euro or might even make things worse? We do not know.
Iskra Tanjga, EFnews
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