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Structural FECM: Cointegration in large-scale structural FAVAR models

09.05.2017Comments are closed.

Keywords:

Dynamic Factor Models,
Cointegration,
Structural Analysis,
Factor-augmented Error Correction Models,
FAVAR

Author(s):

  • Anindya Banerjee (University of Birmingham),
  • Massimiliano Marcellino (Bocconi University)
  • Igor Masten (University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics)

Purpose of this article:
The paper develops a new econometric model for structural macroeconomic analysis using large panels of non-stationary data.

Target audience:
Research community and policy institutions.

Article’s subject:
Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving-average representation. The latter is used for the identification of structural shocks and their propagation mechanisms. We show how to implement classical identification schemesbased on long-run restrictions in the case of large panels. The importance of the error correction mechanism for impulse response analysis is analyzed by means of both empirical examples and simulation experiments. Our results show that the bias in estimated impulse responses in a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR)model is positively related to the strength of the error correction mechanism and thecross-section dimension of the panel. We observe empirically in a large panel of USdata that these features have a substantial effect on the responses of several variables to the identified permanent real (productivity) and monetary policy shocks.

Journal:

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2570

Indexing:

JCR IF  1.872


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